By counting searches through keywords, Google is able to establish trends. Its dominance has enabled it to become a representative sample of populations. Google accounts for 80 percent of worldwide searches. There are 4.2 billion daily Google searches worldwide and this is mined for valuable data to foretell voters’ preferences. In the Philippines, 92.1 million are netizens and members of at least one social media platform. As we are all aware, the internet has become our primary source of information. Inaccuracy arises when respondents posture. They can – but only if the respondents answer honestly. This is not to say that pollsters are unable to provide accurate ratings and foretell trends. In 2020, the majority of American pollsters, including Moody’s Research, predicted an easy victory for Donald Trump. In 2016, no less than Reuters predicted a Hilary Clinton win with a certainty of 90 percent. It will be recalled that in 2012, the majority of pollsters, including the highly respected Gallup Polls, predicted a win for Romney over Obama. We can refer to the experience of the United States for this. Fear of retribution compels many to answer what they believe to be “correct” rather than what is true.Īre surveys accurate in predicting trends? Not as they used to be. For Filipinos, intimidation – whether direct, implied or imagined – weighs heavy on our psyche given that “tokhang” and extrajudicial killings are everyday occurrences for us, especially in the provinces. In countries like the Philippines where politics is patronage-driven, as much as 28 percent answer differently from how they vote. Studies show that in the United States, seven to eleven percent of respondents voted differently from how they answered in a poll. Posturing occurs when the respondent feels the need to conform with the majority, bend to social pressures or succumb to intimidation. Their methodologies conform to internationally accepted standards.ĭo I believe that national surveys reflect the genuine preferences of the voting public? No, and the reason lies in what is called posturing. SWS has had an impeccable record of objectivity that spans 36 years. Among the multitude of pollsters that emerge during elections, I trust the Social Weather Stations (SWS). Some pollsters are more reputable than others. I believe that national surveys conducted by reputable polling agencies provide an accurate snapshot of how people respond to certain questions.ĭo I believe that all surveys published in media are accurate? No. Those lagging question the veracity of surveys. Candidates leading in surveys assert that national surveys are indicators of the final election results. Google Trends, on the other hand, foretells election outcomes based on the online behavior of the voting public over a period of time. Surveys give us a snapshot of where candidates stand at the time the survey was conducted. Presidential surveys and Google Trends tell different stories.
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